Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton 2016: what the poll numbers really mean

Polls show 12% of republicans think Donald Trump is the best candidate, placing him in second place behind Jeb Bush in a crowded field. Trump himself, and some news outlets, have pointed to this as evidence that the billionaire’s unlikely candidacy might have legs after all. But in a republican primary with fourteen declared candidates, what do these numbers really mean? Does he have a shot at the nomination? And what would happen in the general election if he were the nominee?

These poll numbers mean that 88% of republicans think some other candidate would be better. And of course 100% of democrats think someone else would be better. That means only about 6% of total voters consider Trump the best candidate. So you can ignore the headlines suggesting that he’s suddenly a legitimate candidate; these news outlets are misinterpreting the polls.

If Trump did somehow get the republican nomination, the polls say Hillary Clinton would beat him by a 59% to 34% margin. She leads all republican candidates by double digits, so that’s not a surprise. But a gap that wide means that if Trump were the opponent, he’d be looked on so unfavorably that even a decent number of republicans would vote for Hillary just to keep him from winning.

In my own circle, I’ve observed that most of my republican friends think Trump is a fraud and they wish he weren’t running. Most of the people showing support for him are the kind of people who like to claim that all politicians are the same, have no political knowledge of their own, and are simply responding to the fact that he’s bashing all politicians, which appeals to their apathy. The thing about these types is they invariably end up not voting anyway. That suggests he would get even less than 34% if he were the nominee.

So if the recent headlines about him being a “frontrunner” have made you concerned that Donald Trump could actually become the President, there’s little to worry about. In fact, if you’re rooting for Hillary and the democrats to win, the best thing that could happen in that regard would be for Trump to get the republican nomination. And if you’re rooting for the republicans to take the White House in 2016, the numbers say your best bet would be for someone in your party other than Trump to get the nod.

NASCAR Sprint Cup race today Sonoma 350 time TV channel live stream

The NASCAR Sprint Cup race schedule heads to Sonoma today for the Save Mart 350 which comes at a time when the standings are beginning to tighten up. Defending Chase for the Cup winner Kevin Harvick has been dominant thus far in the 2015 season, but second place driver Martin Truex Jr is now within just fifteen points and threatens to steal away the lead. Today’s race has an afternoon start time and airs on a surprising TV channel, along with a live stream online option.

Even as Harvick and Truex battle it out for the NASCAR Sprint Cup standings lead, three drivers are bunched up in a fight for third place. Joey Logano, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jimmie Johnson are all within fourteen points of each other, creating a secondary level of season long competition. Today’s race comes just before the Fourth of July weekend, and in the eyes of some fans serves as a kickoff for the homestretch of the NASCAR season.

Today’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Save Mart 350 race at Sonoma has a start time schedule of 3pm eastern time, noon local pacific time, and airs on TV channel Fox Sports 1 (FS1). The race is also being made available as a live stream online.

Apple Watch retail store launch after multi-month delay

Each Apple product launch is kicked off with a media event, tons of headlines, and a highly publicized launch date a few days later. Now that Apple is finally beginning to sell the Watch in its stores, I wonder what happens. How does Apple signal to people that now is the time to go ahead and go buy one. It can’t hold another launch event, because it already did that back in April when it had basically no inventory to sell. It can’t begin running television ads, because already it’s spent the past two months running those ads nonstop.

So instead of Apple Watch sales kicking off with a bang, as is the case for all of its other launches, this will begin with a trickle. People going into Apple Stores for other reasons, seeing that the Watch is now finally available, and buying it. Other people seeing it in the wild, asking when it’s going to be available and finding out they can get one now, and so on. Based on the ton of online sales racked up back in April in the few hours before Apple ran out of inventory, this was on pace to be the highest-sales launch in Apple history. Instead it’s going to have to build gradually on word of mouth, because Apple already long ago used up its usual firepower in terms of letting people know that it was time to go buy it.

It’ll still vastly outsell all other smartwatch products combined, but that’s not saying much. So now with this retail rollout finally happening, we’ll find out just how much momentum has been lost due to this profoundly botched launch. Apple could have gotten away with screwing up the launch of a new iPhone this badly, because that’s a familiar product and people already know whether they want it. But the Watch is all about convincing people to gamble on a new kind of product that up to now they’ve gotten by just fine without, and I don’t know how these delays and fake launches will end up impacting that.

I’m not surprised that Apple is already saying the second generation Watch software will arrive in the fall, and while this is just speculation, I wouldn’t be shocked if a slightly tweaked Apple Watch 2.0 hardware arrives in the fall as well. After all, Apple is going to have to hold another launch, and fairly soon, if it wants to kickstart on a large scale the mainstream momentum that’s been lost between April and now.

There are some comparisons to be drawn with Google Glass, whose launch was also terribly botched, though it was such a weird product it wouldn’t have succeeded anyway. After Google initially put Glass in the hands of a few people, it waited so long to publicly put it on sale that by that time, most of the public had already assumed it had flopped or been canceled.

To a lesser extent, Apple runs that risk here. Two months into the product’s life, you don’t see many people with an Apple Watch because so few were made available for preorder. Anyone who has tried to buy one in an Apple Store up to this point has been turned away without any indication or when they might be able to get one. Do they come back and buy now? Do they wait for 2.0 instead? Have they already rationalized that since they weren’t allowed to buy one, they don’t need one anyway? I don’t know.

I’ll be disappointed if such an important and groundbreaking product ends up not becoming a mainstream hit simply because Apple mishandled every aspect of its launch. The Apple Watch is too good to go the way of Google Glass, so I suspect it’ll take off in the fall if it doesn’t take off now. But I guess we’ll see.