Apple WWDC 2014 odds: new MacBook Pro 75% iPhone 6 35%, iOS 8 100%

Apple’s WWDC 2014 keynote address is just three weeks away, and users are hoping to hear the details on three new products: the iPhone 6, which will become Apple’s new flagship smartphone to replace the iPhone 5S. iOS 8, the new system software and user interface which will power the iPhone 6 and other new mobile devices. And the new MacBook Pro, which has been conspicuously absent in the weeks since Apple launched a new MacBook Air. All three products are possible for the June 2nd keynote, but some are more likely than others. Here’s a handicapping of the odds of each being shown off at WWDC 2014::

iPhone 6: Apple’s usual pattern is to reveal its new system software in the summer while keeping mum about the hardware, and then releasing them both in tandem in the fall. This time around may be different. Various leaks have the iPhone 6 hitting the market closer to late summer this year than the fall, and Apple is taking heavy flack for not offering a larger screen iPhone. While Apple would hesitate to show off the iPhone 6 three months before it ships due to the impact it would have on existing iPhone sales in the mean time, if we really are looking at a shorter lead time, Apple could show off the iPhone 6 in June to begin building positive publicity for its release in July. But because Apple likes to stick to its release patterns unless it has a strong reason for changing them, we’re pegging the odds of the iPhone 6 showing up at WWDC 2014 at a mere thirty-five percent.

iOS 8: Whether or not iOS 8 is near completion, Apple has no choice but to show off its headlining features and deliver a beta test version to developers at WWDC. That’s the only way it can use the developer sessions at the conference to set the tone for iOS 8 app development. After iOS 8 is demonstrated during the keynote, the only question is how much longer it’ll take to arrive – and that in turn will be partially dependent on how soon the iPhone 6 is ready to ship. Regardless, the odds of iOS 8 surfacing at WWDC 2014 are one hundred percent.

MacBook Pro: Apple’s decision to release a fairly minor update to the MacBook Air last month, while holding the new MacBook Pro back, suggests that it’s a more major update and that it’s being saved for the big stage at the WWDC conference. Of course there’s always the chance that the new MacBook Pro is simply delayed due to manufacturing reasons and won’t be ready for the WWDC keynote, so we’re pegging its odds at seventy-five percent.

Will Stabley
Will Stabley is the Founder and Senior Editor of Stabley Times.
Will Stabley