Betting odds for iPhone 6/6S release date: July 10%, Aug 40%, Sept 50%

The iPhone 6 release date hasn’t conjured up quite the wagering fervor as this past weekend’s Preakness, but Apple fans are nonetheless eager to learn which month the iPhone 6 will arrive in so they can plan their purchases and upgrades accordingly. And while Apple itself continues to guard that information tightly, its pattern of product launches and tight integration between new hardware and software makes Cupertino’s actions more predictable than it would like to admit. In fact we won’t be shocked if Apple launches a base iPhone 6 and a high end iPhone 6S at the same time, based on its shake-up last year with the 5S and 5C. Here are the betting odds for whether the iPhone 6 release date will happen in July, August, or later.

July iPhone 6 release date odds: 10%. This optimistic timeframe is unlikely because Apple won’t launch the iPhone 6 until the corresponding iOS 8 system software is ready. And while the latter will be unveiled in early June, it’ll have several round of beta testing to work its way through before being suitable for public release. Can Apple get its new iOS through the testing phase in just one month so the iPhone 6 release date can happen in July? It’s possible, but it would be a first.

August iPhone 6 release date odds: 40%. Now we’re getting into more realistic territory. August gives Apple plenty of time to finish up iOS 8 development and get its iPhone 6 and iPhone 6S out the door just as college students are trying to decide which smartphone to buy and take back to campus. But it would also mean Apple’s first summertime iPhone launch since the iPhone 4 in 2010, giving the iPhone 5S less than a full year on the market before moving on. And Apple likes its patterns…

September iPhone 6 release date odds: 50% …which is why we’re pegging September or early October as the most likely launch point for the iPhone 6. It would still give Apple plenty of time to make the retail and inventory changeover well in advance of the start of the holiday shopping season – and it’s the timeframe in which the iPhone has launched for each of the past three years.

Phil Moore

Phil Moore

Phil covers tech for Stabley Times.