iWatch release date 2015 odds 100%, iPhone 7 40%, iPhone 6S 60%

By Phil Moore | February 21, 2015

Apple is gearing up for another big year of product launches in 2015, but will that come in the form of the iPhone 7 or the iPhone 6S or both? And will the iWatch release date arrive as expected? What else is in the Cupertino pipeline in the upcoming months? Apple rarely discusses the details of unreleased products (with one major recent exception), so in some instances the best we can do is offer the odds of a given product launching in 2015 based on everything we know about Apple’s sometimes predictable patterns. Here’s a rundown of the odds of various products arriving next year.

iPhone 7 release date in 2015: 40% The question here is why Apple would want to break its traditional release cycle. Although often groan-inducing on the part of consumers, the pattern of offering an S-model every other year has worked well in terms of lining up with the fact that most buyers are on a two-year upgrade cycle with their carrier. Those who weren’t eligible for the iPhone 5 ended up getting the iPhone 5S the next year and so forth. But with Samsung, HTC and others offering “new” versions of their flagship smartphones each year, Apple has taken flack for the appearance of only launching new iPhones every other year. Apple could launch the iPhone 7 in 2015 paired with a reduced-price existing iPhone 6, or a bold move in which the iPhone 7 and iPhone 6S are released together to almost completely turn over the iPhone product matrix in one swoop. But the odds are somewhat against it, as record-setting sales of the iPhone 6 point to an iPhone 6S selling just fine this year.

iPhone 6S release date in 2015: 60% Apple will launch a new iPhone in the fall of 2015, the only question is which model. If the iPhone 7 doesn’t happen next year, then the iPhone 6S will be launched as the new flagship model by default. Consumers may not be overly enthused as the proposition of a 6S, but as they’ll largely be people who weren’t upgrade-eligible for the iPhone 6 this past year, they’ll line up to buy it in droves anyway.

iWatch in 2015: 100% This one is a given. Apple CEO Tim Cook has already confirmed that the product will launch in April 2015. The only thing that could hold this up all the way to 2016 would be an unexpected massive problem in the development cycle, but even such a delay wouldn’t likely push it beyond the fall. One catch: while the industry expected the product to be called iWatch, Apple is publicly referring to the product as the Apple Watch. What are the odds that changes by its launch? That’s another story.