iPhone 6S release date: March 9th event 40% odds, September 2015 60%

By Jake Robison | March 9, 2015

The iPhone 6S release date will come in 2015, but for now only Apple knows whether it’ll be in the spring or the fall. That all changes with the March 9th press event for the rollout of the Apple Watch, which will also include the debut of at least some other related products. For the first time in its history, Apple has strong motivation to break its cycle and launch the iPhone 6S just half a year after its predecessor. But what are the odds of that really happening?

The cons to holding the iPhone 6S release date so soon after the iPhone 6 are apparent. The 6 is still setting sales records and is in no danger of losing its appeal over the summer. And changing models now throws off the traditional fall launch cycle which the industry has long been counting on.

But the pros for an early launch are growing. The first is that the Apple Watch requires a recent iPhone model, meaning those still relying on something like a 4S will be inclined to wait to buy the watch until they can buy a newer iPhone with it. And with this being the middle of the iPhone 6 cycle, some will decide to wait until the fall to buy an iPhone 6S and a Watch together.

By moving the 6S up to March 9th, Apple shifts millions of additional Watch sales from the fall to the spring, and early sales are critical to building momentum and word of mouth for a new type of product that the public isn’t yet comfortable with.

There is also the fact that cellphone carriers are increasingly shifting their customers toward twelve month trade-in programs, making irrelevant the old two-year upgrade cycle that the S-model strategy was based on. Apple may opt to begin releasing an entirely new iPhone each year, with the S-models launched in between.

Still, even with most of the logic and revenue benefits being on the side of the iPhone 6S release date taking place on March 9th, we’re giving it no better than 40% odds of happening, simply because Apple doesn’t need to make the move. Accordingly, the traditional launch date for new iPhones is the second Tuesday of September, which means we’re giving 60% odds of the iPhone 6S release date taking place on September 8th.