WWDC 2015: iPod touch 6th generation 10%, iPhone 6S release date 20%

By Phil Moore | June 5, 2015

What are the odds the iPhone 6S release date is unveiled next week? How about the long awaited iPod touch 6th generation? And is iOS 9 about to make its public debut? With the WWDC developer conference about to get underway, those preparing to purchase new Apple products are hoping for signs, innuendo, or outright announcements to help steer them toward planning their buying timeframes. Here’s a look at the odds of each of the above products surfacing at WWDC 2015, and what it would take for each to happen.

iPhone 6S release date: 20%: Despite being the kind of thing that sounds unlikely, there are a number of reasons it could happen. Apple hit a home run with the 4.7 inch iPhone 6 but cost itself significant sales by replacing the ever-popular 4.0 inch form factor with a niche 5.5 inch “Plus” model. Now it faces a future in which all three sizes will be necessary in order to keep everyone happy, and that means launching a four inch “iPhone mini.” If the deed must be done, why not jump straight to the iPhone 6S in the process? Apple is also about to ramp up its Watch retail launch, and offering a surprise new iPhone model is an ideal way to get users of the iPhone 4S and older, which aren’t Watch-compatible, to go ahead and upgrade and buy the Watch in the process. But we’re placing 80% odds against it happening at WWDC for one reason: sales of the 4.7 inch iPhone 6 are still through the roof, making it an odd time to rush-launch the next generation.

iPod touch 6th generation: 10%: Here’s the catch. Apple has waited so long to launch the iPod touch 6 that if it launches this month it’ll either have to include last year’s specs (making it instantly obsolete) or the next generation specs (which Apple simply won’t do ahead of the next iPhone). So the only chance of the iPod 6 launching at WWDC is if the iPhone 6S also launches. Even then it’s no guarantee that Apple would want to give those still clinging to the anachronous iPod touch any further excuse to avoid their inevitable upgrade to the iPhone. In short, we don’t expect to see the iPod touch 6th generation until the fall, if ever.

iOS 9: 99%: Apple is bringing together nearly all of its third party app developers for WWDC, and essentially must show them the guts of iOS 9 so they can begin working to modify their existing apps to fit the new paradigm, as well as developing entirely new apps to take advantage of the new architecture and features. Holding WWDC and not showing off the new iOS would be like throwing a birthday party for someone who isn’t going to show up and isn’t having a birthday. iOS 9 is essentially the only lock among new WWDC products.