NFL 2015 season preview, rule changes and Super Bowl prediction

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Training Camps are nearly over, pre-season games are being played, Brett Favre is still retired (and still crying as evidenced by his number retirement ceremony) and the nation is collectively as tired of Deflategate as we were of Ray Rice last year at this time. With the season about to start and the off-season reality show that is todays NFL about to end, it makes sense to take a look at what to expect this year. A sprinkling of predictions, a smattering of rule changes and a pinch of sarcasm to prep you for the upcoming glut of Sunday football action.

A quick recap on what you may have missed if you were stranded on a desert island from last years Super Bowl until now. The NFL should actually air a special each year before week one that is exclusively a look back. Television shows that return in the fall always give you that “Last season on…” segment during the first show of the new broadcast year, football should to. Since they wont, I will.

So last season on the soap opera that is the NFL: The Seahawks lost the Superbowl by throwing a goal line interception eschewing a Marshawn Lynch plunge and handing the Patriots the Lombardi, Demarco Murray ran wild in Dallas and won the rushing title, Adrian Peterson sat out the year while dealing with child abuse charges, Jay Cutler was benched for “Mr. Pickle” Jimmy Clausen, Johnny Football turned into Johnny Rehab, the Titans and Bucs added together were good for 4 wins, The Chiefs went 9-7 without a single wideout scoring a TD and the Panthers won their division at 7-8.
During the offseason Jason Pierre Paul made sure nobody could ever high-five him again by blowing off a finger on the fourth of July and not to be outdone C.J. Wilson of the Buccaneers went ahead and blew off two fingers leaving one to wonder if either player will ever excel at Call of Duty again.

As far as coaching went the San Francisco 49’ers ownership proved that they are both arrogant and completely incompetent and showed coach Jim Harbaugh the door. Amid reports of pithy problems like personality conflicts between Harbaugh and management and after rumors the Niners tried to trade him they finally gave up and parted ways. How dumb was this decision and what kind of slap in the face is it to the fans when you essentially say that winning is less important than Harbaugh paying lip service to the right guys in the owner’s box? Consider that the Niners went 8 straight seasons without sniffing the playoffs before Harbaugh came along in 2011. He took them to 3 straight playoff appearances including a Super Bowl and 2 Conference Championship games. His first off year, last year, he went 8-8 and was fired. You could easily make an argument this was the dumbest coaching change in history.

Other coaching changes of note include John Fox taking the reins from Mark “We have Matt Forte and still refuse to run the ball” Trestman (editors note: It’s unknown if that is indeed Trestmans legal middle name) in Chicago, former Seahawks coordinator Dan Quinn is the New head coach in Atlanta, the Broncos tapped long time backup quarterback Gary Kubiak as their new head coach, the Raiders hired Jack Del Rio, the Bills snapped up Rex Ryan setting up a nice faceoff with his former team twice this year, and the Jets hired Todd Bowles. It was a busy “Black Monday” last year after the season with a lot of coaches playing musical chairs.

This freshman class of coaches will be faced with a few new rules for the upcoming season because in the NFL endlessly tinkering with the game each offseason has, somewhat sadly, become inevitable. So here’s a peek at the new rules with the big one being that extra points have been moved back so they now are the equivalent of a 32-yard field goal. In addition the defense can now return fumbles, interceptions and blocked kicks on all extra point attempts to receive 2-points. This is similar to NCAA rules and flies in the face of Roger Goodells tiresome “player safety” tagline as this rule just created countless more collisions that did not exist last season.

In addition:

• The restriction of “peel-back” blocks (essentially blocking low on a defensive player who can’t see it coming or defend his knees) was expanded to include every offensive player and not just those inside the tackle box.

• Medical personnel now have the authority to call a timeout if a player appears “woozy or disoriented” following a blow that may have resulted in a concussion. The timeout will not be charged to the team.

• The definition of “defenseless receiver” has been expanded to include receivers who are chasing down interceptions or who are in the air when the interception occurs.

• A receiver lined up in the slot can no longer be declared ineligible (the New England Patriot Rule).

• Footballs at halftime will be randomly tested to ensure correct PSI inflation levels (The other New England Patriot rule).

Now a prediction that, last year at this time, I never thought I would make: Someone, and soon, is going to sign Ray Rice. All the signs are there. A few teams have tried explaining away the last subpar season he played by making it known he played through an injury in his final year in action, a year in which he averaged a pedestrian 3.2 yards a carry. After that the Cleveland Browns let it leak that they have had “internal discussion” about signing Rice. Shortly after the Bills leaked a similar sort of statement. These were, quite obviously, trial balloons floated in the press to see how much flak signing Rice would bring. It’s identical to the way Michael Vick made his way back to the NFL. Sniff out public opinion, tell everyone within earshot how much you believe in second chances, encourage the player in question to do a quick apology tour where he proclaims his rehabilitation and then sign the guy. It’s the NFL PR machines playbook. So, as the tired internet meme always says: Brace yourself, Ray Rice is coming.

I also predict that the Dallas Running game will be just fine despite the departure of Demarco Murray in the offseason. The league has been trending towards a total and complete devaluation of the running back position for years and the culmination of that was the Cowboys letting the league rushing leader walk away at the end of the season. Murray and his 1,845 yards went to the division rival Eagles who, in turn, let the NFL’s number 3 rusher, Lesean McCoy, shuffle off to Buffalo. So if you count Frank Gore leaving the Niners, 3 of the NFL’s top 10 running backs all switched teams at the end of last season which tells you all you need to know about how the league views running backs these days. But in Dallas where they return all members of one of the premier offensive lines in the NFL we will get a definitive answer to the question: Was Murray that good or should the offensive line get all the credit? The Cowboys are rolling with the often injured and rarely producing Darren McFadden (if you don’t know who he is he was the guy you saw on the sidelines in a Raiders uniform and on crutches for the past 3 or so seasons) in tandem with Joseph Randle. If those two muster even average seasons the Dallas line will prove their worth.

While I am at it let’s just go with a fish-in-a-barrel style prediction: The Jets and Browns will be battling for the top draft pick at the end of the year. The Browns are so dysfunctional and so lacking in talent I have to give them the edge. The general manager is suspended for texting the head coach during games to tell him what plays to run, their QB depth chart reads like a schedule that should be hanging up in McDonalds, their best running back is second year Isaiah Crowell and opposite Dwayne Bowe the best they can muster is Brian Hartline. They’re what we like to call a dumpster fire of a team. The Jets are not much better. They feature a quarterback with a broken jaw who was socked by a teammate, 6th year running back Chris Ivory who, in his career, mustered roughly 1,000 yards more than Demarco Murrays total from last year, and at receiver the mercurial Brandon Marshall opposite Erik Decker. Marshall, who has a history of shutting it down when the quarterback play isn’t up to his high standards, is sure to melt down by week 2 as Ryan Fitzpatrick tries and fails to reach him in what will certainly be double coverage.

These kinds of predictions usually include a “worst to first” kind of narrative and I would like to make one or two, but my feeling is that the rich got richer and the poor poorer for the first offseason in a while. In pouring over the basement dwellers I couldn’t find a one that had improved enough, in my humble opinion, to turn into that Cinderella story fans always love. I don’t need to give you a complete list but go ahead and peek at last years cellar dwellers and try to find one improved enough to climb to the top. The Buccaneers are returning the same offensive line that nearly got Josh McCown killed last year, the Bears defense looks more incompetent than Ashley Madisons cyber-security department, the Rams are trying Eagles washout Nick Foles with temperamental Kenny Britt his best receiver. The list goes on and on and so, for the first time in recent memory, I think those teams who finished on the bottom of their divisions last season will remain there. I know the official league tagline is “parody” but I don’t see it this season.

My official “please come back and make fun of me at years end” Super Bowl prediction:
Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh

And a late addition, shot in the dark I-have-a-gut-feeling prediction: Someone will take a shot at dusting off Randy Moss. He’s hinted at being in playing shape for two years and earlier today shied away from declaring himself retired. Somewhere there is a team that thinks it’s a receiver away from contending and they’ll sign him. As always skewer me in the comments when you disagree.

Dan Knight

Dan Knight

Dan Knight has been a marketing executive for over 15 years and is also a freelance writer residing in upstate New York. He is a rabid fan of the Chicago Bears and The Simpsons. In his heart it’s still the 80’s and he still holds out hope someone will find a “lost” John Hughes film he hasn’t yet seen. He will be covering NFL Football and a variety of other topics.
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