NFL independent investigator Ted Wells has determined that New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was “more likely than not” involved in an attempt at cheating in one or more games in the 2014 season. Now the league is in the difficult position of deciding whether to suspend its biggest star and reigning Super Bowl MVP. Some people seem to want Tom Brady suspended simply because they root for an opposing team, while others are making excuses for him that defy logic. If you’re curious as to what NFL policy actually says about suspensions for cheating, and what NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is likely to do based on precedent, here’s what I’ve pieced together:

For a unique type of cheating like this, discipline is left up to the commissioner. However he’s likely to draw on guidelines for more common forms of cheating as a guideline.

The most common form of cheating, steroid use, has fixed punishments: four game suspension for testing positive for steroids. Two games for using a masking agent that could cover up steroids. Six games for rigging a steroid test, for instance using someone else’s urine.

Whether or not the player gained any competitive advantage, or the outcome of any games was affected, is considered irrelevant. Whether other players may have also been cheating in the same manner, but didn’t get caught, is also considered irrelevant.

The tricky part here is taking what Brady did, and figuring out which of the above it’s most similar to. The NFL isn’t a court of law, meaning nothing has to be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. The evidence says that Brady almost certainly instructed the ball boys to deflate the balls below the allowed pressure, which suggests straightforward cheating and a four game suspension. However one could argue that because the evidence against him is circumstantial and he did attempt to hinder the investigation, that’s more similar to trying to cover up steroid use without actually testing positive, and therefore a two game suspension. If one concludes that he was guilty of both trying to cheat and trying to cover it up, that would point to a six game suspension.

When players test positive for a substance such as marijuana which is banned but doesn’t provide an unfair advantage on the field, they’re not suspended for their first offense. So the best argument for Brady not being suspended would be if you believe that his decision to have the balls deflated wasn’t an attempt to alter the outcome of the game and was simply something he preferred for personal reasons which had nothing to do with competition. That seems like a difficult case to make, but if you’re looking to get Brady off the hook, that’s your best line of argument under NFL rules.

I actually have a problem with the NFL suspending any players without pay when they haven’t been found guilty of anything under the law. Various players have been suspended without pay simply because they were accused of a crime, and when those charges were dropped, their lost wages were never returned to them. I believe this a violation of the law, and have long argued that any such suspensions should be with pay. Make them pick up trash around the practice field during employment hours for the suspended weeks if they want to earn their paychecks. But don’t simply take their salary away without a legal reason for doing so. That sets a bad precedent for what real world bosses think they can get away with toward their working class employees. All that said, and my personal feelings on the matter aside, the NFL precedent is clear that any attempt at cheating, under any circumstances, whether it worked or not, must result in a suspension for the first offense. If Brady were suspended with pay, he would be receiving special treatment.

This is all made difficult because the commissioner has a history of dishing out punishments which violate his own league rules, sometimes for being too harsh and other times for being too weak, depending on how he thinks it’ll play out in the public eye. The Patriots head coach was given a free pass for blatant and habitual cheating in Spygate, but the Saints head coach was suspended for a full year for Bountygate. Ray Rice was suspended just two games in the hopes people would forget he was a wife beater, and then after public outcry, he was suspended for an entire season even though policy said it should have been six games.

This suggests the commissioner will once again punish Tom Brady according to how he thinks the public will react. On the one hand, he’s the defending super bowl champ and arguably the most popular player in the league. On the other hand, the majority of sports reporters are calling for a suspension.

Suspending Tom Brady could actually hurt some of the other teams in the division. Assuming the Patriots are going to win the division no matter what, and the other three teams are vying for a wildcard spot, if he’s suspended for the first four games of the season he’ll miss a game against the Bills, which could help the Bills chances of topping the Dolphins or Jets in the wildcard race. He’d also miss a game against the Steelers, which could help them take a wildcard spot away from an AFC East team. While such concerns can’t and won’t be a factor in his punishment, those rooting for Brady’s suspension for competitive reasons would do well to look more closely at the schedule.