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Miami Dolphins: Todd Gurley vs Melvin Gordon vs Joe Philbin

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The Miami Dolphins enter the 2015 NFL Draft with several areas of need and the fourteenth pick in the first round. Never thought I’d say this, but I’d like the Dolphins to take a running back in the first round of the draft. Little point in taking a stretch receiver when your QB can’t hit the long ball anyway. They need a guard and tight end, but neither is worth a first round pick. If a stud cornerback falls to them, they’ll have to take him. But short of that, I want Todd Gurley.

He’s a once in a generation running back, and he can give the Dolphins offense the kind of additional dynamic that Lynch gives the Seahawks. Pair up Gurley with Lamar Miller, who’s good but only for about fifteen carries a game, and you’ve got the best running back tandem in the league.

The trouble: Gurley is coming off an injury which might make him limited for the first half of the season. The Dolphins head coach is in a win-or-get-fired season, and if he gets off to a slow start, he could be gone before Gurley even sees the field. So if the Dolphins GM is leaning toward taking a running back, I wouldn’t be surprised if the coach tries to steer him toward the less dynamic but ready-to-play-week-one Melvin Gordon.

It’s why a team should never keep a head coach around who hasn’t accomplished anything and is one more bad year away from getting fired. That coach invariably pushes the organization toward making short term moves that mortgage the future in the hopes of remaining employed for one more season. And now the fact that the Miami Dolphins failed to fire Joe Philbin after three failed seasons means that not only is 2015 already potentially a lost season, they may also lose out on Todd Gurley for the next ten years as a result.

Miami Dolphins ink Greg Jennings for Joe Philbin’s last stand in 2015

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The Miami Dolphins have signed wide receiver Greg Jennings, giving them the veteran presence they need to bolster a young crop of wideouts centered around rising star Jarvis Landry and new arrival Kenny Stills. The move frees up the team to pursue a running back or other position in the draft instead of having to use its first round pick on a receiver. But while the signing may indeed be an ideal move for the Dolphins, it also represents head coach Joe Philbin’s last stand on his way out the door.

Failing leaders, whether they be politicians who have lost public support or NFL head coaches who have lost too many games, inevitably bring in someone they feel they can trust from their own past. It’s not always about turning things around so much as having someone on board who will be personally loyal even if others in the organization begin to turn against the leader. Greg Jennings spent years playing for Joe Philbin when they were both with the Green Bay Packers. And so now it’s no surprise that, with Philbin one more non-winning season away from being fired, is turning to Jennings. But there may be more to it.

As much as Joe Philbin ostensibly wanted Greg Jennings on his team from a personal loyalty standpoint, he’s no longer the one with the most personnel influence in the Miami Dolphins organization. GM Dennis Hickey, offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and boss Mike Tannenbaum must have all signed off on this move. It shows just how little power Philbin has left in Miami, and how almost certain his firing is at the end of the 2015 season. But for Dolphins fans, it’s also a positive sign that those who haven’t previously worked with Jennings also signed off on his signing, which means they see him as a valid addition for football reasons.

Miami Dolphins draft Todd Gurley? Not if Joe Philbin has any say

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Todd Gurley will fall to the Miami Dolphins at the fourteenth pick in the NFL Draft, and by all rights they should take him: he’s a once in a decade talent, the rare running back worthy of a first round pick. And they need the help, as Lamar Miller is only half the answer at the position. But the Fins will take a pass on Gurley in 2015, and the reason will come down to simply two words: Joe Philbin.

The Dolphins head coach has been known for running off his most talented players because they had a personality or were vocal in the locker room, but that’s not the reason why he’ll object to Miami drafting Todd Gurley. The star running back is coming off an injury which won’t have him ready to go by opening day, meaning that while he may contribute to the team for the next decade, he won’t contribute significantly in the first half of the 2015 season. And that doesn’t work for Philbin, who could well be fired by then.

Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross has made clear that he expects the team to make it to the playoffs this season, or else Joe Philbin will be out of a job after having failed to put together a winning season in three years. That means he needs to get off to a fast start this season, and he can’t do that if Todd Gurley can’t contribute until, say, week eight. So the coach will advocate for someone else to be taken in the first round, someone who can contribute from day one, in the hopes of saving his own neck. Perhaps he can’t be blamed for such defensive thinking, but it’s the kind of no-win scenario which inevitably harms a team when an unsuccessful head coach is brought back for one last desperate show-me season. The only way the Dolphins take Todd Gurley is if it’s over Philbin’s objections, in which case he already has one foot out the door anyway.