Apple Event 2015: iPhone 6S release date 70%, iPhone 7 30%, Apple TV 50%

By Will Stabley | September 8, 2015

Apple is holding its big fall media event this week, and it’s taking place on the second Wednesday of September as it does like clockwork nearly every year – but is the company about to break from its usual pattern when it comes to what’s rolling out? Widespread rumors have the iPhone 6S release date being the centerpiece of the event, but those appear to be based largely on expectation rather than evidence – could it be the iPhone 7 instead? And what’s with the long awaited Apple TV television sets? Here’s a look at the odds of each appearing at the big Apple Event.

iPhone 6S: 70%: When in doubt, lean toward Apple sticking to its patterns. For all the perceived secrecy regarding the company, some of its moves are telegraphed long in advance. It’s been releasing “S” models of each of its iPhones for the better part of the past decade, launching them every other year in order to double the shelf life of each hardware design – while accommodating for the fact that many users are stuck on two year contracts and can only upgrade every other year anyway.

However those contracts are gradually falling by the wayside in favor of trade-in-anytime plans, meaning this could be the year in which Apple finally forgoes the “S” and jumps straight to the next whole number with an all new design. However if this happens, there’s a good chance the iPhone 6S is released anyway, as the mid range model in the matrix.

iPhone 7: 30%: Any other year we’d have this pegged at a lower percentage. But with more users now on programs which allow them to trade up to the latest new smartphone each year, Apple is putting itself at a strategic disadvantage by putting out a new phone every other year that looks exactly like its predecessor. Now may be the time in which Apple finally jumps to a lineup of iPhone 7 on top, iPhone 6S in the middle, and iPhone 6 or 6C on the bottom. We give it decent odds, but don’t bet the house.

Apple TV: 50%: Rumors of Apple television sets have been brewing for at least four years now, and they seem to be a matter of when, not if. Still, Apple appears to be in no hurry to launch the product, preferring to get it right rather than to rush it out the door. In the mean time it may launch yet another Apple TV set top box, the niche if inexpensive product which has largely been positioned as an add-on rather than a full solution.

iPod touch 7th generation: 0%: The rollout was so low key that all but the biggest of Apple aficionados may have missed it, but the iPod touch 6th generation quietly debuted about a month ago. So there is no chance of Apple revamping the iPod touch yet again this quickly.

iOS 9: 100%: This is a given. The new touchscreen system software for iPhone and iPad was publicly previewed by Apple this summer, and will ship in tandem with the new hardware introduced at this event. The only mysteries here is what additional features it may include besides the ones that were built into the beta-test version that’s been in the wild for months, and whether iOS 9 will be debuting on the iPhone 6S release date or the iPhone 7 release date.